Alpha decays. After fees, the expected value of hunting alpha is negative for most participants. The alternative is beta, and beta deserves more respect than it typically gets. This is the case for focusing your analytical energy on thematic direction rather than stock selection.

Alpha 会衰减。扣除费用后，追逐 alpha 的期望值对大多数参与者来说是负的。Beta 是真实存在的回报源，却没有得到应有的重视。这篇文章讲的是：为什么你应该把主要精力放在主题方向上，而不是选股。

AI investors need to understand the semiconductor supply chain. From EUV lithography to HBM packaging, the path from raw silicon to a deployed GPU is one of the most intricate industrial systems ever assembled — and knowing where the chokepoints are changes how you invest.

想投资 AI，就绕不开半导体供应链。从极紫外光刻到高带宽内存封装，从原始硅到一块部署好的 GPU，中间是人类有史以来最复杂的工业系统之一。知道瓶颈在哪里，会改变你的投资判断。

There is a pattern in how transformative technologies create value, and it almost never looks like a straight line. The J-curve framework offers the clearest mental model for thinking about where we are in the AI investment cycle — and where the money moves next.

变革性技术创造价值的方式有一个规律：几乎从来不是一条直线。J 曲线框架是我目前找到的最清晰的思维模型——用来理解我们在 AI 投资周期的什么位置，以及钱接下来会往哪里流。

I keep returning to the same question: what does it actually mean to think alongside a machine? Not to delegate to it, not to be replaced by it — but to genuinely collaborate, in the way two people with different strengths might work through a hard problem.

有个问题我一直在想：跟机器一起思考，到底是什么感觉？不是让它替你干活，也不是被它替代——而是真的合作，就像两个擅长不同东西的人凑在一起解一道难题。